Netanyahu’s governing coalition is fracturing. Here’s what it means for Israel and Gaza

By TIA GOLDENBERG TEL AVIV Israel AP Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu s regime suffered a serious blow on Tuesday when an ultra-Orthodox party reported it was bolting the coalition Related Articles EU ministers request more detail from Israel on aid deal for Gaza Israeli strikes kill at least in Gaza as UN agencies warn of fuel problem A recap of the trial over the Trump administration s crackdown on pro-Palestinian campus protesters Europe unveils deal for more food and fuel for Gaza Israeli strike kills waiting outside clinic What to know as Yemen s Houthi rebels launch new more violent attacks on ships in the Red Sea While this doesn t this instant threaten Netanyahu s rule it could set in motion his administration s demise although that could still be months away It also could complicate efforts to halt the war in Gaza United Torah Judaism s two factions noted they were leaving the cabinet because of disagreements over a proposed law that would end broad exemptions for religious students from enlistment into the military Military amenity is compulsory for preponderance Jewish Israelis and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country Those rifts have only widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed The threat to the authorities looks more serious than ever declared Shuki Friedman vice president of the Jewish People Protocol Institute a Jerusalem think tank Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of his coalition allies Here is a look at Netanyahu s political predicament and particular promising scenarios The ultra-Orthodox are key partners Netanyahu Israel s longest serving leader has long relied on the ultra-Orthodox parties to prop up his governments Without UTJ his coalition holds just out of parliament s seats That means Netanyahu will be more susceptible to pressure from other elements within his governing body especially far-right parties who strongly oppose ending the war in Gaza The political shake up isn t likely to absolutely derail ceasefire talks but it could complicate how flexible Netanyahu can be in his concessions to Hamas which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States Canada and the European Union A second ultra-Orthodox party is also considering bolting the executive over the draft issue That would give Netanyahu a minority in parliament and make governing almost impossible The ultra-Orthodox military exemptions have divided Israel A decades-old arrangement by Israel s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli arrangement Over the years those exemptions ballooned into the thousands and created deep divisions in Israel The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries old tradition They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents connection to the faith But majority of Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair as well as the generous cabinet stipends granted to multiple ultra-Orthodox men who survey instead of work throughout adulthood That bitterness has only worsened during nearly two years of war The politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties have long had outsize influence in Israel s fragmented political system and used that status to extract major concessions for their constituents But a court last year ruled Netanyahu s regime must enlist the ultra-Orthodox so long as there is no new law codifying the exemptions Netanyahu s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind prompting their exit The political shake up comes during Gaza ceasefire talks The resignations don t take effect for hours so Netanyahu will likely spend the next two days seeking a compromise But that won t be easy because the Supreme Court has revealed the old system of exemptions amounts to discrimination against the secular majority That does not mean the executive will collapse Netanyahu s opponents cannot submit a motion to dissolve parliament until the end of the year because of procedural reasons And with parliament s summer recess beginning later this month the parties could use that time to find a compromise and return to the establishment Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar from Netanyahu s Likud party announced he was hopeful the religious party could be coaxed back to the coalition God willing everything will be fine he declared A Likud spokesman did not at once respond to a request for comment Once the departures become official Netanyahu will have a razor-thin majority The far-right parties within it could threaten to leave the coalition further weakening him if he gives in to too a great number of of Hamas demands Hamas wants a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire deal Netanyahu s hard-line partners are open to a temporary truce but say the war cannot end until Hamas is destroyed If they or any other party leave the coalition Netanyahu will have a minority regime and that will make it almost impossible to govern and likely lead to its collapse But he could still find means to approve a ceasefire deal including with endorsement from the political opposition Israel may be on the path toward early elections Netanyahu could seek to shore up his coalition by appeasing the far-right and agreeing for now to just a partial -day ceasefire with Hamas promising his governing partners that he can still resume the war once it expires But Netanyahu is balancing those political constraints with pressure from the Trump administration which is pressing Israel to wrap up the war Gayil Talshir a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem disclosed she expects Netanyahu to work during those days to shift the narrative away from the draft exemptions and the war in Gaza toward something that could potentially give him an electoral boost like an expansion of U S -led normalization deals between Israel and Arab or Muslim countries Once the -day ceasefire is up Netanyahu could bend to U S pressure to end the war and bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza a move majority of Israelis would backing Elections are presently scheduled for October But if Netanyahu feels like he has improved his political standing he may want to call elections before then